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If Space X is unable to recoup its investment in reusability before New Glenn is regularly conducting multiple commercial missions per year, likely no earlier than 2021 or 2022, Space X’s Falcon 9 pricing could be rendered distinctly noncompetitive.However, this concern seems almost entirely misplaced.

Blue Origin’s New Glenn concept is extremely impressive on paper, but the company will have to pull off an extraordinary leap of technological maturation to move directly from suborbital single-stage hops to multi-stage orbital rocketry.The large methalox rocket engine (BE-4) that will power New Glenn’s first stage also conducted its first-ever hot-fire just weeks ago, a major milestone in propulsion development but also a reminder that BE-4 has an exhaustive regime of engineering verification and flight qualification testing ahead of it.Perhaps more importantly, the company’s relative success with New Shepard’s launch, recovery, and reuse has not and cannot move beyond small suborbital hops, and thus cannot provide the experience at the level of orbital rocketry.As a result of being completely privately funded, Bezos’ deep pockets could render Blue more flexible than Space X when pricing launches.If Blue chooses to aggressively price New Glenn by accounting for booster reusability, it could pose a threat to Space X’s own business strategy.In the past three years, Space X has made incredible progress in their program of reusability.